A note on 24cast.org's predictions:

The predictions below are based on our machine learning model. While our predictive accuracy is high for past elections, these predictions are based on data that is expected to change greatly before election day, so these predictions will update over time. Our “outcome likelihood” represents the probability of an outcome based on our current information—not a guarantee. Ultimately, the outcome of the 2024 election will depend on how the American people vote, so please ensure your registration.

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24cast.org Prediction:

Outcome Likelihood:


Electoral Votes:


Last data update: 5/21/2024

24cast.org's Prediction Map:

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How 24cast.org Predicted This Race

We ran 0 simulations predicting election margins using a machine learning model trained on data across multiple decades.

Democrats won in 0 simulations and lost in 0 simulations.

Look through our full methodology!

Margin Simulations

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Washington District 3

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